Global Manager SAA Outlook

Core Economic Assumptions

J.P. Morgan

Expects a new era of higher economic growth driven by AI and capital investment. Inflation forecasts are slightly lower but remain above pre-pandemic levels. Anticipates higher neutral cash rates and a weaker U.S. dollar over the forecast horizon (10-15 years).

Vanguard

Forecasts a world of structurally higher interest rates. U.S. core inflation is expected to slowly moderate towards 2.5%. Global growth is anticipated to be modest, with differing outlooks by region. Their 10-year view reflects more sober return expectations compared to the past decade.

State Street

Return forecasts are derived from current yield conditions and expectations for economic evolution. Their model incorporates factors like long-term inflation expectations from bond markets, real earnings growth tied to GDP, and even sustainability scores (R-Factor) to adjust risk expectations.

Asset Class Forecast Comparison

Select an asset class to compare the managers' nominal annualized return forecasts.

Manager	Forecasted Annual Return (%)

Sample Portfolio Outlook

J.P. Morgan: 60/40 Portfolio

6.4%

Forecasted 10-15 year annualized nominal return for a global 60% stock / 40% bond portfolio (USD).

AustralianSuper: Balanced Option

7.9%

Actual 10-year annualized return as of June 30, 2025. Provided as a historical benchmark.

Australian Perspective

Specific forecasts for Australian assets and context from major local funds.

Forecasts for AU Assets

Global managers forecast solid, albeit lower, returns for Australian assets compared to some global counterparts, reflecting the market's maturity and economic outlook.

Australian Equities Forecast:

7.0% - 8.5%

Typical range from manager reports.

Australian Bonds Forecast:

4.0% - 5.0%

Typical range for aggregate fixed income.

Major Australian Funds' View

While not publishing detailed public SAA forecasts, Australia's largest funds provide context through their long-term objectives and performance.

Future Fund (Sovereign Wealth Fund)

Targets a long-term return of CPI + 4.0-5.0% p.a. Their 10-year actual return to June 2025 was 8.0% p.a., indicating a strategy focused on exceeding inflation with a diversified global portfolio.

AustralianSuper (Largest Super Fund)

The flagship Balanced (MySuper) option's 10-year actual return to June 2025 was 7.9% p.a. This performance serves as a practical benchmark for a typical diversified, long-term Australian investor.

Strategic Asset Allocation - Global Outlook